Charles Rosa vs TJ Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
69"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Combat GymTeamWestside MMA
What's at stake
Charles Rosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — TJ Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1677
If they lose-14→ 1653
If they win+14→ 1616
If they lose-10→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1610 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Charles RosaTJ Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Brown55%
Charles Rosa 45%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Brown a 55% favorite over Charles Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Charles Rosa's way (41%).
Charles Rosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1602, a 65-point edge.
Charles Rosa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Charles Rosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.
TJ Brown carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.