Combat Edge Intelligence

Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel Roberts

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
AMA Fight ClubTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Charlie Brenneman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Daniel Roberts carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Charlie BrennemanNow 1599
If they win+11→ 1610
If they lose-13→ 1586
Daniel RobertsNow 1563
If they win+18→ 1581
If they lose-14→ 1549

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.52
Sig. strikes / min
0.73
57%
Strike accuracy
20%
1.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
47%
Strike defense
46%
4.23
Takedown avg.
2.46
42%
Takedown accuracy
44%
73%
Takedown defense
40%
0
Submission avg.
2.46

Trajectory

Charlie BrennemanDaniel Roberts
15501600165020132014

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
5 (26%)
Submission
9 (60%)
9 (47%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Charlie Brenneman and Daniel Roberts within a point of even.

Charlie Brenneman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1563, a 36-point edge.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Charlie Brenneman finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Daniel Roberts 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.