Combat Edge Intelligence

Charlie Brenneman vs Johny Hendricks

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach69,0"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
AMA Fight ClubTeamTeam Takedown

What's at stake

Johny Hendricks is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Charlie Brenneman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Charlie BrennemanNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
Johny HendricksNow 1705
If they win+8→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.49
57%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.99
47%
Strike defense
53%
4.23
Takedown avg.
3.83
42%
Takedown accuracy
47%
73%
Takedown defense
64%
0
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Charlie BrennemanJohny Hendricks
1600165017001750180020132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
8 (44%)
5 (26%)
Submission
1 (6%)
9 (47%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Johny Hendricks82%
Charlie Brenneman 18%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Johny Hendricks a 82% favorite over Charlie Brenneman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Johny Hendricks holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1599, a 106-point edge.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Charlie Brenneman finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Johny Hendricks 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.