Charlie Brenneman vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach40,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
AMA Fight ClubTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Charlie Brenneman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1616
If they lose-7→ 1592
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charlie BrennemanRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story84%
Charlie Brenneman 16%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 84% favorite over Charlie Brenneman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1599, a 145-point edge.
Charlie Brenneman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charlie Brenneman finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.