Combat Edge Intelligence

Charlie Campbell vs Lucas Brennan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-3-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Longo-Weidman MMATeamNext Generation MMA Frisco

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Charlie CampbellNow 1640
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Lucas BrennanNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.55
Sig. strikes / min
0
54%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
2.95
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Charlie CampbellLucas Brennan
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (73%)
3 (33%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Brennan60%
Charlie Campbell 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 60% favorite over Charlie Campbell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Charlie Campbell's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Charlie Campbell finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.