Charlie Ontiveros vs Steve Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record19-6-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'2"Height6'0"
74"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
W4R Training CenterTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Steve Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Charlie Ontiveros carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1545
If they lose-8→ 1513
If they win+6→ 1729
If they lose-18→ 1705
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charlie OntiverosSteve Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Garcia92%
Charlie Ontiveros 8%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Garcia a 92% favorite over Charlie Ontiveros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Steve Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1521, a 202-point edge.
Charlie Ontiveros enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charlie Ontiveros finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Steve Garcia 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.