Chas Skelly vs Tom Niinimaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-3-0Record22-8-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
72"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamFinnfighters' Gym
What's at stake
Chas Skelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Tom Niinimaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1736
If they lose-20→ 1704
If they win+15→ 1641
If they lose-9→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chas SkellyTom Niinimaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chas Skelly82%
Tom Niinimaki 18%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Chas Skelly a 82% favorite over Tom Niinimaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Chas Skelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1626, a 98-point edge.
Chas Skelly enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chas Skelly finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Tom Niinimaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.