Combat Edge Intelligence

Chase Gormley vs Stefan Struve

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-9-0Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height7'0"
TBDReach84,5"
264 lbsWeight265 lbs
Reign MMATeamTeam Schrijber

What's at stake

Stefan Struve is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Chase Gormley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chase GormleyNow 1556
If they win+21→ 1577
If they lose-11→ 1545
Stefan StruveNow 1664
If they win+8→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.06
Sig. strikes / min
3.12
34%
Strike accuracy
47%
17.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.04
45%
Strike defense
47%
3.09
Takedown avg.
0.56
33%
Takedown accuracy
47%
0%
Takedown defense
56%
3.09
Submission avg.
1.68

Trajectory

Chase GormleyStefan Struve
155016001650170020162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
8 (29%)
2 (14%)
Submission
18 (64%)
8 (57%)
Decision
2 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Stefan Struve70%
Chase Gormley 30%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Stefan Struve a 70% favorite over Chase Gormley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Stefan Struve holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1556, a 108-point edge.

Chase Gormley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chase Gormley finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.