Chase Sherman vs Justin Willis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
78"Reach41,0"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Justin Willis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Chase Sherman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
If they win+13→ 1672
If they lose-19→ 1640
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chase ShermanJustin Willis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chase Sherman60%
Justin Willis 40%Elo baseline: 40%
The Combat Edge model makes Chase Sherman a 60% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Willis's way (40%).
Justin Willis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1587, a 72-point edge.
Chase Sherman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chase Sherman finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Justin Willis 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.