Chase Sherman vs Justin Willis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
78"Reach41,0"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Justin Willis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Chase Sherman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-19→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chase ShermanJustin Willis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Willis70%
Chase Sherman 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Willis a 70% favorite over Chase Sherman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Justin Willis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1587, a 70-point edge.
Chase Sherman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chase Sherman finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Justin Willis 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.