Che Mills vs Duane Ludwig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Trojan Free Fighters· 1567 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Che Mills is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Duane Ludwig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1570
If they lose-18→ 1538
If they win+18→ 1526
If they lose-14→ 1494
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Che MillsDuane Ludwig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Che Mills56%
Duane Ludwig 44%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Che Mills a 56% favorite over Duane Ludwig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Che Mills holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1556 to 1508, a 48-point edge.
Che Mills enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Che Mills finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Duane Ludwig 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.