Che Mills vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Trojan Free Fighters· 1567 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Che Mills carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1579
If they lose-9→ 1547
If they win+7→ 1732
If they lose-17→ 1708
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Che MillsRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald86%
Che Mills 14%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 86% favorite over Che Mills in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1556, a 169-point edge.
Che Mills enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Che Mills finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.