Combat Edge Intelligence

Che Mills vs Rory MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Che Mills

Che Mills

“Beautiful”

16-10-0WelterweightCWFC

1555Solid

Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Trojan Free FightersTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Che Mills carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Che MillsNow 1555
If they win+24→ 1579
If they lose-8→ 1547
Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+6→ 1747
If they lose-18→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.08
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
52%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
43%
Strike defense
62%
1.18
Takedown avg.
1.77
67%
Takedown accuracy
48%
59%
Takedown defense
89%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Che MillsRory MacDonald
1600170018002015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
4 (25%)
Submission
9 (39%)
3 (19%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald84%
Che Mills 16%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 84% favorite over Che Mills in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1555, a 186-point edge.

Che Mills enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Che Mills finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.