Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Avila vs Chris Manuel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-9-0Record9-7-2
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
39,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight143 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris AvilaNow 1495
If they win+16→ 1511
If they lose-16→ 1479
Chris ManuelNow 1498
If they win+16→ 1514
If they lose-16→ 1482

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.37
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
30%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
49%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
46%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris AvilaChris Manuel
150020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
2 (25%)
Submission
5 (56%)
1 (13%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Avila60%
Chris Manuel 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 60% favorite over Chris Manuel in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Manuel's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1495 vs 1498), separated by just 3 points.

Chris Manuel enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Chris Manuel 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.