Chris Avila vs Marcello Aguiar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record10-16-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
39,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamBarbaros Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1511
If they lose-17→ 1479
If they win+25→ 1509
If they lose-23→ 1461
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Avila66%
Marcello Aguiar 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 66% favorite over Marcello Aguiar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1496 vs 1484), separated by just 12 points.
Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Marcello Aguiar 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.