Chris Barnett vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record24-20-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'9"Height6'0"
75"Reach72,0"
268 lbsWeight249 lbs
XFCTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1645
If they lose-12→ 1621
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris BarnettRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Barnett70%
Roy Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Barnett a 70% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1631), separated by just 2 points.
Chris Barnett enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Chris Barnett finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Chris Barnett carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.