Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Beal vs Tateki Matsuda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record15-11-0
LightweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight125 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Sityodtong

What's at stake

Tateki Matsuda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chris Beal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris BealNow 1524
If they win+17→ 1541
If they lose-15→ 1509
Tateki MatsudaNow 1544
If they win+11→ 1555
If they lose-13→ 1531

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.20
36%
Strike accuracy
35%
3.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.43
62%
Strike defense
69%
1.60
Takedown avg.
0
58%
Takedown accuracy
0%
78%
Takedown defense
17%
0.23
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chris BealTateki Matsuda
1550202020212022

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (7%)
0 (0%)
Decision
9 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Beal54%
Tateki Matsuda 46%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Beal a 54% favorite over Tateki Matsuda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tateki Matsuda's way (47%).

Tateki Matsuda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1544 to 1524, a 20-point edge.

Tateki Matsuda enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tateki Matsuda 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.