Chris Brennan vs Gil Castillo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-14-1Record8-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Next GenerationTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Gil Castillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chris Brennan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1552
If they lose-11→ 1528
If they win+14→ 1590
If they lose-18→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris BrennanGil Castillo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gil Castillo66%
Chris Brennan 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Gil Castillo a 66% favorite over Chris Brennan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Gil Castillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1576 to 1539, a 37-point edge.
Chris Brennan enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Brennan finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Gil Castillo 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.