Chris Camozzi vs Lorenz Larkin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-15-0Record27-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'11"
76,0"Reach73"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Chris Camozzi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-9→ 1655
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CamozziLorenz Larkin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lorenz Larkin72%
Chris Camozzi 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 72% favorite over Chris Camozzi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1664, a 102-point edge.
Chris Camozzi enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Camozzi finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.
Chris Camozzi carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.