Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Camozzi vs Rafael Natal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-15-0Record21-9-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'0"
76,0"Reach76,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris CamozziNow 1664
If they win+12→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1652
Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
45%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
56%
Strike defense
58%
0.27
Takedown avg.
2.55
19%
Takedown accuracy
34%
58%
Takedown defense
77%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Chris CamozziRafael Natal
165017002015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (30%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
7 (26%)
Submission
8 (38%)
12 (44%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Chris Camozzi and Rafael Natal within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1673), separated by just 9 points.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Chris Camozzi finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.