Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Camozzi vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-15-0Record28-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'1"
76,0"Reach78,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Chris Camozzi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris CamozziNow 1664
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-9→ 1655
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
45%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
56%
Strike defense
53%
0.27
Takedown avg.
2.10
19%
Takedown accuracy
27%
58%
Takedown defense
31%
0.47
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Chris CamozziThales Leites
16501700175020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (30%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
7 (26%)
Submission
15 (54%)
12 (44%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Thales Leites59%
Chris Camozzi 41%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 59% favorite over Chris Camozzi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1664, a 80-point edge.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Chris Camozzi finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Thales Leites carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.