Chris Cariaso vs Demetrious Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record25-4-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'3"
TBDReach 66.00"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamAMC Pankration
What's at stake
Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Chris Cariaso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1654
If they lose-6→ 1630
If they win+6→ 1850
If they lose-18→ 1826
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoDemetrious Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demetrious Johnson83%
Chris Cariaso 17%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Demetrious Johnson a 83% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1844 to 1636, a 208-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Demetrious Johnson 52%.
Chris Cariaso and Demetrious Johnson share 1 common opponent: Henry Cejudo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.