Chris Cariaso vs Demetrious Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record25-4-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'3"
TBDReach 66.00"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamAMC Pankration
What's at stake
Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Chris Cariaso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1655
If they lose-5→ 1631
If they win+5→ 1853
If they lose-19→ 1829
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoDemetrious Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demetrious Johnson78%
Chris Cariaso 22%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Demetrious Johnson a 78% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1636, a 212-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Demetrious Johnson 52%.
Chris Cariaso and Demetrious Johnson share 1 common opponent: Henry Cejudo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.