Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Cariaso vs Iliarde Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-0Record32-16-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'3"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Chris Cariaso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Iliarde Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris CariasoNow 1636
If they win+9→ 1645
If they lose-15→ 1621
Iliarde SantosNow 1558
If they win+15→ 1573
If they lose-9→ 1549

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
3
44%
Strike accuracy
30%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.10
61%
Strike defense
57%
1.11
Takedown avg.
1.66
39%
Takedown accuracy
23%
58%
Takedown defense
83%
0.84
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chris CariasoIliarde Santos
1550160016502013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (18%)
KO/TKO
14 (44%)
2 (12%)
Submission
7 (22%)
12 (71%)
Decision
11 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Cariaso70%
Iliarde Santos 30%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Cariaso a 70% favorite over Iliarde Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Chris Cariaso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1558, a 78-point edge.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Iliarde Santos 66%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.