Chris Cariaso vs John Moraga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record19-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'6"
TBDReach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
John Moraga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Cariaso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1650
If they lose-10→ 1626
If they win+10→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoJohn Moraga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Moraga71%
Chris Cariaso 29%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes John Moraga a 71% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
John Moraga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1636, a 64-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, John Moraga 58%.
Chris Cariaso and John Moraga share 1 common opponent: Sergio Pettis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.