Chris Cariaso vs Josh Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record11-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamAll American MMA
What's at stake
Chris Cariaso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Josh Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1646
If they lose-14→ 1622
If they win+18→ 1602
If they lose-14→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoJosh Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Ferguson54%
Chris Cariaso 46%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Ferguson a 54% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Cariaso's way (43%).
Chris Cariaso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1584, a 52-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Josh Ferguson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Josh Ferguson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.