Chris Cariaso vs Jussier Formiga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record24-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jussier Formiga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Chris Cariaso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1651
If they lose-9→ 1627
If they win+9→ 1735
If they lose-15→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoJussier Formiga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jussier Formiga69%
Chris Cariaso 31%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jussier Formiga a 69% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jussier Formiga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1636, a 90-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Jussier Formiga 46%.
Chris Cariaso and Jussier Formiga share 1 common opponent: Sergio Pettis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.