Chris Cariaso vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record17-9-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'9"
TBDReach68"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1624
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka60%
Chris Cariaso 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 60% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Cariaso's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1630), separated by just 6 points.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.