Chris Cariaso vs Michael McDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record19-4-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'8"
TBDReach70,0"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamLast Stand Fight Team
What's at stake
Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Chris Cariaso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1651
If they lose-9→ 1627
If they win+12→ 1747
If they lose-20→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoMichael McDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael McDonald83%
Chris Cariaso 17%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 83% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1636, a 99-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.