Chris Cariaso vs Takeya Mizugaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record23-14-2
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamHakkei Gym
What's at stake
Chris Cariaso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Takeya Mizugaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1647
If they lose-13→ 1623
If they win+13→ 1621
If they lose-11→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris CariasoTakeya Mizugaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Takeya Mizugaki54%
Chris Cariaso 46%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Takeya Mizugaki a 54% favorite over Chris Cariaso in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Cariaso's way (46%).
Chris Cariaso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1608, a 28-point edge.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.