Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Cariaso vs Vaughan Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-0Record14-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight and FitnessTeamUTC Birmingham

What's at stake

Chris Cariaso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Vaughan Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris CariasoNow 1636
If they win+8→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1620
Vaughan LeeNow 1507
If they win+16→ 1523
If they lose-8→ 1499

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
44%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
61%
Strike defense
70%
1.11
Takedown avg.
0.81
39%
Takedown accuracy
33%
58%
Takedown defense
72%
0.84
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Chris CariasoVaughan Lee
1500155016001650201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

3 (18%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
2 (12%)
Submission
7 (50%)
12 (71%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Cariaso68%
Vaughan Lee 32%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Cariaso a 68% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Chris Cariaso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1507, a 129-point edge.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Chris Cariaso finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.