Chris Chapa vs Jermaine Edwards
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Jermaine Edwards58%
Chris Chapa 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jermaine Edwards a 58% favorite over Chris Chapa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Chapa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1520 vs 1519), separated by just 1 points.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record2-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'3"
-Reach78"
170 lbsWeight153 lbs
TBDTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1626 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1544
If they lose-24→ 1496
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris ChapaJermaine Edwards