Chris Chapa vs Ryota Oki
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ryota Oki66%
Chris Chapa 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryota Oki a 66% favorite over Chris Chapa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1520 vs 1521), separated by just 1 points.
Ryota Oki enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ryota Oki 29%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record7-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'9"
-Reach-
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
TBDTeamKrazy Bee
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1544
If they lose-24→ 1496
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris ChapaRyota Oki