Chris Chapa vs Willy LaMacchia
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Chris Chapa59%
Willy LaMacchia 41%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Chapa a 59% favorite over Willy LaMacchia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Chris Chapa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1520 to 1480, a 40-point edge.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record0-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeightTBD
-Reach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
TBDTeam
What's at stake
Chris Chapa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Willy LaMacchia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1541
If they lose-27→ 1493
If they win+27→ 1507
If they lose-21→ 1459
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.