Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-8-0Record11-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
76"Reach80"
205 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team BalanceTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Rodrigo Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Chris Daukaus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1630
If they lose-13→ 1598
If they win+13→ 1679
If they lose-19→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DaukausRodrigo Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rodrigo Nascimento70%
Chris Daukaus 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 70% favorite over Chris Daukaus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Rodrigo Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1611, a 55-point edge.
Chris Daukaus enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Chris Daukaus finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.
Chris Daukaus and Rodrigo Nascimento share 1 common opponent: Derrick Lewis.
Rodrigo Nascimento carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.