Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Hawk vs Leonardo Guimaraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chris Hawk
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Chris Hawk

5-10-0Light Heavyweight

1405Developing

Tale of the tape

5-10-0Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTata Fight Team

What's at stake

Leonardo Guimaraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Chris Hawk carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris HawkNow 1405
If they win+17→ 1422
If they lose-15→ 1390
Leonardo GuimaraesNow 1432
If they win+15→ 1447
If they lose-17→ 1415

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1512 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris HawkLeonardo Guimaraes
14001450150015502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
5 (100%)
Submission
8 (53%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Chris Hawk and Leonardo Guimaraes within a point of even.

Leonardo Guimaraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1432 to 1405, a 27-point edge.

Chris Hawk finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.