Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Hawk vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chris Hawk
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Chris Hawk

5-10-0Light Heavyweight

1405Developing

Tale of the tape

5-10-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Chris Hawk carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris HawkNow 1405
If they win+19→ 1424
If they lose-13→ 1392
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+19→ 1490
If they lose-29→ 1442

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1512 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris HawkMatthew O'Rourke
140014501500155020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (100%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke71%
Chris Hawk 29%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 71% favorite over Chris Hawk in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1405, a 66-point edge.

Chris Hawk finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.