Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Heatherly vs Patrick Rivera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record13-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
180 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fit or FightTeamGround Control Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris HeatherlyNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Patrick RiveraNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1468 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
48%
Strike accuracy
Not available
8.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
52%
Strike defense
Not available
4.21
Takedown avg.
Not available
50%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
100%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Chris HeatherlyPatrick Rivera
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
5 (38%)
4 (44%)
Submission
5 (38%)
4 (44%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Heatherly59%
Patrick Rivera 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Heatherly a 59% favorite over Patrick Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patrick Rivera's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.

Chris Heatherly finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Rivera 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.