Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach77,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Chris Leben carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-8→ 1627
If they win+8→ 1764
If they lose-16→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenDerek Brunson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson71%
Chris Leben 29%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 71% favorite over Chris Leben in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1635, a 121-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Derek Brunson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.