Chris Leben vs Jason MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record25-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMATeamPure Fitness
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1621
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenJason MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben61%
Jason MacDonald 39%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 61% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1587, a 48-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.