Chris Leben vs Jason Thacker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record0-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jason Thacker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1642
If they lose-17→ 1618
If they win+34→ 1517
If they lose-14→ 1469
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenJason Thacker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben73%
Jason Thacker 27%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 73% favorite over Jason Thacker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1483, a 152-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.