Chris Leben vs Jay Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record12-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight225 lbs
Alliance MMATeamMPF Training Systems
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jay Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1619
If they win+16→ 1523
If they lose-8→ 1499
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenJay Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben66%
Jay Silva 34%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 66% favorite over Jay Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1507, a 128-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jay Silva 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.