Chris Leben vs Jorge Santiago
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record25-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamBlackzilians
What's at stake
Jorge Santiago is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Leben carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1649
If they lose-10→ 1625
If they win+10→ 1713
If they lose-14→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenJorge Santiago
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jorge Santiago75%
Chris Leben 25%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Santiago a 75% favorite over Chris Leben in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Jorge Santiago holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1635, a 68-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jorge Santiago enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Santiago 92%.
Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago share 1 common opponent: Brian Stann.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.