Chris Leben vs Kalib Starnes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record17-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Alliance MMATeamAegis Athletics
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kalib Starnes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1621
If they win+14→ 1576
If they lose-10→ 1552
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenKalib Starnes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben69%
Kalib Starnes 31%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 69% favorite over Kalib Starnes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1562, a 73-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kalib Starnes 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.