Chris Leben vs Matthieu Duclos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record10-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamVenum Training Camp Paris
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenMatthieu Duclos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthieu Duclos70%
Chris Leben 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthieu Duclos a 70% favorite over Chris Leben in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Leben's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matthieu Duclos enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Matthieu Duclos 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.