Chris Leben vs Yoshihiro Akiyama
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-0Record16-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach73,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Yoshihiro Akiyama is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chris Leben carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1648
If they lose-11→ 1624
If they win+14→ 1692
If they lose-18→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LebenYoshihiro Akiyama
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yoshihiro Akiyama60%
Chris Leben 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Yoshihiro Akiyama a 60% favorite over Chris Leben in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Yoshihiro Akiyama holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1635, a 43-point edge.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Yoshihiro Akiyama enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Leben finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Yoshihiro Akiyama 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.