Chris Lytle vs Dan Hardy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-18-5Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Integrated Fighting AcademyTeamTeam Rough House
What's at stake
Chris Lytle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dan Hardy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1717
If they lose-13→ 1693
If they win+13→ 1697
If they lose-11→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LytleDan Hardy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Hardy58%
Chris Lytle 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Hardy a 58% favorite over Chris Lytle in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Lytle's way (47%).
Chris Lytle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1684, a 22-point edge.
Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Lytle finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Dan Hardy 64%.
Chris Lytle and Dan Hardy share 1 common opponent: Marcus Davis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.