Chris Lytle vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-18-5Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Integrated Fighting AcademyTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Chris Lytle carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1721
If they lose-9→ 1697
If they win+9→ 1816
If they lose-15→ 1792
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LytleMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes59%
Chris Lytle 41%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 59% favorite over Chris Lytle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1706, a 101-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Lytle finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Chris Lytle and Matt Hughes share 2 common opponents: Matt Serra and Josh Koscheck.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.