Chris Lytle vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
31-18-5Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Integrated Fighting AcademyTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Chris Lytle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Serra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1715
If they lose-15→ 1691
If they win+21→ 1626
If they lose-11→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris LytleMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Lytle69%
Matt Serra 31%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Lytle a 69% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Chris Lytle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1605, a 101-point edge.
Chris Lytle finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.