Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-18-5Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Integrated Fighting AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Chris Lytle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1714
If they lose-16→ 1690
If they win+16→ 1589
If they lose-8→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1654 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris LytleThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Lytle58%
Thiago Alves 42%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Lytle a 58% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Chris Lytle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1573, a 133-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Lytle finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.