Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Mecate vs Fabrizio Escarrega

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
70" Reach-
150 lbsWeight156 lbs
Miura BJJTeamVictory Fight Club· 1668 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris MecateNow 1635
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
Fabrizio EscarregaNow 1634
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris MecateFabrizio Escarrega
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (33%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
2 (17%)
Submission
1 (11%)
6 (50%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabrizio Escarrega66%
Chris Mecate 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabrizio Escarrega a 66% favorite over Chris Mecate in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Mecate's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.

Chris Mecate finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Fabrizio Escarrega 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.