Chris Mecate vs Mandel Nallo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70" Reach75"
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Miura BJJTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris MecateMandel Nallo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mandel Nallo59%
Chris Mecate 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mandel Nallo a 59% favorite over Chris Mecate in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Mecate's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1634), separated by just 1 points.
Chris Mecate finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mandel Nallo 100%.
Mandel Nallo carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.