Chris Mickle vs Nathan Trepagnier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
31-21-2Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
148 lbsWeight160 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1523
If they lose-12→ 1499
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1485 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris MickleNathan Trepagnier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier66%
Chris Mickle 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 66% favorite over Chris Mickle in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Mickle's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1511 vs 1505), separated by just 6 points.
Chris Mickle finishes 97% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.